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Will AAPL still be a 1T company by 2019-09-27 ☶ 2 ⥣ 0 2018-09-26 13:56:45
A: Above one trillion
B: Below one trillion
Apple is the only public company with a market cap above 1T right now. There are several other stock that has the potential to be in the 1T club, include GOOG, AMZN and MSFT, or even Berkshire Hathaway.
Although it is exciting to see a few companies in the 1T club, the one not so welcome and difficult question is, will AAPL be able to sustain its position in 1T market cap? Well, there are reasons investor should be at alarm.
First of all, Apple is not the only one 1T company in the stock history. PetroChina Company Limited (PTR) surpassed 1T on 2007 and Warren Buffet's Berkshire was a big stock holder of PTR at the time (about 3%). Buffet sold the entire stack by Oct. 18, 2007. PTR reached all time high around that time with about $260 per share. The stock price crashed soon after, went all the way down $74 a year later, and ever since in between $60-$150 range, currently around $80. Although the oil price fluctuation was supposed to be the major factor, it is in fact not. Brent oil topped out at about $144 a barrel in July 2008, and at the same time PTR has the stock price in half of its peak when the oil price was at about $90. The major factor that influenced the PTR stock price is indeed the news Buffet acquired / sold the stock. By then Buffet invested about 500M and profited about 3.5B.
Second of all, what's the major forces that is driving Apple's stock price? One is the huge stock buy back with hundreds of billions. $200B was done by June, 2018, and another $100B was announced. As of June, 2018, Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway owned approximately 246.5 million shares, or 5.1% of Apple's outstanding shares. With today's apple stock price of 222, this stack worth about $54B. It's a big stack but not as big as Apple's stock buy back plan. Even so, with Buffet's Berkshire name on the top stock holder list, many investors will be over optimistic and buy buy buy. The question is when will Buffet unload the pile, and when will Apple diminish its buy back plan? Looking at Apple's recent buy back data statistics, there is a trend of slowing buyback but it is still around $5B a quarter. As soon as consumers willing to pay high price for an IPhone, Apple will have enough cash to sustain the buy back plan. With the trade war between USA and China dragging on, it is likely that either the higher price of Apple's product discourage it's demand or Apple has to suffer lower margin.
We will see in a year, and what's your thoughts?
S&P to reach 3000 by the end of 2018, possible? ☶ 3 ⥣ 0 2018-10-12 14:27:30
A: S&P above 3000 end of 2018
B: S&P below 3000 end of 2018
S&P 500 reached a high of 2940 on Oct. 3 2018, and closed at 2,728 on Oct. 11, 2018. Will it go down more or bounce back to reach 3000 at the end of 2018?
The sharp drop was attributed to sharp rise of treasury return, which is opposite of its price. High treasury return means high interest rate, and also related to high inflation.
China's trade surplus with the United States ballooned to a record $34.1 billion in September, despite a raft of US tariffs, official data showed Friday, Oct. 12 2018. The trade war initiated by president Trump has been dragging on for quite long time and no foreseeable ending any time soon. This trade surplus can signal good or bad in either way. It can be interpreted as no effect of Trump's tariff pressure on China, which mean further tariff is possible, but also means the disruption on economy was not as server as predicted.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the largest U.S. bank by assets, reported better-than-expected results on Oct. 12 2018, with earnings per share of $2.34 versus analysts’ estimates of $2.26. CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement. “The U.S. and the global economy continue to show strength, despite increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, which at some point in the future may have negative effects on the economy.”
Evercore’s Rich Ross predicts “now offer a compelling tactical setup for a textbook V-shaped reversal higher” .
Blackstone’s Byron Wien “I think we had to knock some of the complacency out of the market, and God knows, we are doing that right now,” Wien told CNBC during a late-morning interview. “I think this is a correction in an ongoing bull market and I think the market goes higher at year-end” .
Jeffrey Gundlach believes the U.S. stock market can't diverge from global equity markets forever. "I said [before] ... if the global stock [market] is going to take out the low and put in a new low, something bad must be happening."
Gene Munster, who was famous covering AAPL, warns for more selling in technology stocks. Big names, except Apple, including Facebook, Netflix and Amazon could see another big "step down" of 5 percent, he says.
Who is more creditable during hearing? Ford or Kav ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-09-27 16:37:24
A: Christine Blasey Ford
B: Brett Kavanaugh
The live broadcasting of Ford and Kavanaugh is still going on. Ford is done and Kavanaugh just started. Many people may already have their conclusion about who is more creditable based on Ford and Kavanaugh's appearance.
To me it just a little bit awkward to see a judge to cry during the hearing. I always thought a judge should be heartless and only care about facts not emotions.
Ted Cruz or Beto O'Rourke for texas senator ☶ 1 ⥣ 0 2018-10-11 18:54:01
A: Ted Cruz
B: Beto O'Rourke
It is almost nearly impossible to even imagine that a republican senator can be challenged in Texas by a Democratic giving the long and strong history of conservative in Texas. But, then, if a Republican can beat Democratic in California for governor in the past, it is also interesting if not surprising, that Democratic can challenge Republican in Texas.
Beto O'Rourke, of Democratic, was almost unknown to many in the national stage but now his became so popular people start to remember the name even if it is so much harder compares to Ted Cruz's name.
There are many polls that says one way or the other but the fact is, it is a tense contest, it is a big deal in current political atmosphere. We may never be able to predict but for sure will be able to know the results after the mid term vote.
Tesla profit on 3rd quater 2018? ☶ 1 ⥣ 0 2018-10-24 14:19:56
A: TSLA profit on 3rd quater
B: TSLA still lose money
The earning report is on Wednesday, October 24, 2018.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk told employees late in the quarter that it was close to profitability.
Most of the analysts who are following the stock do not expect Tesla to make money.
Tags: TSLA Tesla profit
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S&P to fall to between 2450 and 2500? ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-10-29 15:23:41
A: S&P fall to the end of 2018
B: S&P rebound to the end of 2018
The S&P 500 is down about 9.3 percent from its peak, now is around 2650.
S&P rebound to the end of the year? 1, while Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin believe it will rebound to 2850 by the end of the 2018 Morgan Stanley has different view.
Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, predicted that the S&P 500 could fall to between 2,450 and 2,500. “And we think we get there in four to eight weeks,” Wilson said. That time frame will be around the end of 2018.
The U.S. trade clash with China, which is beginning to be discussed more frequently by U.S. corporate executives on earnings calls, is among the factors market participants point to as a key catalyst for the current downbeat mood.
Tags: Michael Wilson S&P 500
S&P rebound to the end of the year? ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-10-29 15:10:48
A: S&P rebound to the end of the year
B: S&P stay low
The S&P 500 is down about 9.3 percent from its peak, now is around 2650.
The S&P 500 is due for a 6 percent rebound into the end of 2018, according to Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. 2850 is his forecast to the end of the 2018.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/29/goldman-sachs-sell-off-is-overdone.html
Tags: David Kostin
Tesla profit on 3rd quater 2018? ☶ 1 ⥣ 0 2018-10-24 14:19:56
A: TSLA profit on 3rd quater
B: TSLA still lose money
The earning report is on Wednesday, October 24, 2018.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk told employees late in the quarter that it was close to profitability.
Most of the analysts who are following the stock do not expect Tesla to make money.
Tags: TSLA Tesla profit
Will TSLA beat the market expectation on earning r ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-10-24 14:11:18
A: Beat
B: Beaten
Tesla stock price has been up and down wildly. The background is the "Apple" like reputation and product V.S. the short seller looking at the financial situation of the company.
Hedge fund manager David Einhorn compared Tesla to Lehman Brothers, where he had flagged accounting problems several months before its 2008 collapse. ALthough as a matter of fact, his Greenlight Capital is having a difficult year, with its main fund down 25.7 percent through September.
Citron Research, one of the most famous and successful short seller in the market, had bet against Tesla stock for years. They changed their position for short to long, arguing that Tesla is destroying the competition.
"While the media has been focused on Elon Musk's eccentric, outlandish and at times offensive behavior, it has failed to notice the legitimate disruption of the auto industry that is currently being dominated by Tesla," Citron wrote.
The news of Citron's change of view pushed TSLA from around $260 per share to around $297 per share.
Now the question is will Tesla beat the market expectation on earning report.
Tags: TSLA Tesla earning report
S&P to reach 3000 by the end of 2018, possible? ☶ 3 ⥣ 0 2018-10-12 14:27:30
A: S&P above 3000 end of 2018
B: S&P below 3000 end of 2018
S&P 500 reached a high of 2940 on Oct. 3 2018, and closed at 2,728 on Oct. 11, 2018. Will it go down more or bounce back to reach 3000 at the end of 2018?
The sharp drop was attributed to sharp rise of treasury return, which is opposite of its price. High treasury return means high interest rate, and also related to high inflation.
China's trade surplus with the United States ballooned to a record $34.1 billion in September, despite a raft of US tariffs, official data showed Friday, Oct. 12 2018. The trade war initiated by president Trump has been dragging on for quite long time and no foreseeable ending any time soon. This trade surplus can signal good or bad in either way. It can be interpreted as no effect of Trump's tariff pressure on China, which mean further tariff is possible, but also means the disruption on economy was not as server as predicted.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), the largest U.S. bank by assets, reported better-than-expected results on Oct. 12 2018, with earnings per share of $2.34 versus analysts’ estimates of $2.26. CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement. “The U.S. and the global economy continue to show strength, despite increasing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, which at some point in the future may have negative effects on the economy.”
Evercore’s Rich Ross predicts “now offer a compelling tactical setup for a textbook V-shaped reversal higher” .
Blackstone’s Byron Wien “I think we had to knock some of the complacency out of the market, and God knows, we are doing that right now,” Wien told CNBC during a late-morning interview. “I think this is a correction in an ongoing bull market and I think the market goes higher at year-end” .
Jeffrey Gundlach believes the U.S. stock market can't diverge from global equity markets forever. "I said [before] ... if the global stock [market] is going to take out the low and put in a new low, something bad must be happening."
Gene Munster, who was famous covering AAPL, warns for more selling in technology stocks. Big names, except Apple, including Facebook, Netflix and Amazon could see another big "step down" of 5 percent, he says.
Ted Cruz or Beto O'Rourke for texas senator ☶ 1 ⥣ 0 2018-10-11 18:54:01
A: Ted Cruz
B: Beto O'Rourke
It is almost nearly impossible to even imagine that a republican senator can be challenged in Texas by a Democratic giving the long and strong history of conservative in Texas. But, then, if a Republican can beat Democratic in California for governor in the past, it is also interesting if not surprising, that Democratic can challenge Republican in Texas.
Beto O'Rourke, of Democratic, was almost unknown to many in the national stage but now his became so popular people start to remember the name even if it is so much harder compares to Ted Cruz's name.
There are many polls that says one way or the other but the fact is, it is a tense contest, it is a big deal in current political atmosphere. We may never be able to predict but for sure will be able to know the results after the mid term vote.
Tennessee senator race, the winner will be ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-10-08 13:20:11
A: Phil Bredesen
B: Marsha Blackburn
The race was tense and Tyler Swift make a rare announcement on instagram that she supports Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen over republican candidate Marsha Blackburn.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BopoXpYnCes/?utm_source=ig_web_options_share_sheet
Her decision was
--
As much as I have in the past and would like to continue voting for women in office, I cannot support Marsha Blackburn. Her voting record in Congress appalls and terrifies me. She voted against equal pay for women. She voted against the Reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, which attempts to protect women from domestic violence, stalking, and date rape. She believes businesses have a right to refuse service to gay couples. She also believes they should not have the right to marry. These are not MY Tennessee values.
We will see if Tyler Swift can swift the tide towards Democratic candidates.
Huawei surpassed Apple and they want to be No.1 by ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-10-01 16:03:57
A: Huawei will be No.1 by Q4 2019
B: Huawei will not be No.1 by Q4 2019
The top 3 smart phone maker are Samsung, Apple and Huawei. Samsung and Apple have been on the top 2 spots for a long time without a significant No.3 challenger. The situation changed quite a lot since 2016 and very obviously during 2018.
In 2nd quarter of 2018 one big breaking news is that Huawei surpassed Apple to be the No.2. Although there are opinions what does that mean and if Apple will get back the title from Huawei in Q4 of 2018, it is big step forward for Huawai. By year to year comparison, Samsung and Apple's market share didn't change much while at the same time Huawei increased from 10% to 15.9% in one year.
Although it is not a household brand like Samsung and Apple in USA due to "security concern", Huawei has been very successful in Asia and Europe. Even though there is no carrier in USA sells Huawei phone, a lot of consumer likes the Honor brand smart phone, which can be found at Amazon with very high ratings.
In 2016, Huwei announced they want to surpass apple in 2018, and they did. Now they aim to overtake Samsung to be No.1 smart phone maker by Q4, 2019. Will they be able to achieve this goal, we still have about a year to go. At the same time Samsung, Apple and others won't sit idol. Whoever gets the title it's the consumer the winner. At least Apple may have to think twice how much they want to charge with or without serious competition.
Tags: Huawei Apple Samsung Smart phone
Facebook security issue and Chang Chi-yuan ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-09-29 13:50:02
A: Exploit, but not hack by Chang Chi-yuan
B: Nothing to do with Chang Chi-yuan
On September 28, 2018, facebook acknowledged that a security issue was discovered on September 25th. This security issue affects almost 50 million accounts. https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2018/09/security-update/
--Quote from facebook announcement: Our investigation is still in its early stages. But it’s clear that attackers exploited a vulnerability in Facebook’s code that impacted “View As” a feature that lets people see what their own profile looks like to someone else. This allowed them to steal Facebook access tokens which they could then use to take over people’s accounts. Access tokens are the equivalent of digital keys that keep people logged in to Facebook so they don’t need to re-enter their password every time they use the app.
Maybe it is coincidence, Chang Chi-yuan posted a live video announcement https://www.facebook.com/robots.tx/videos/1198079323673283/ on September 26th that he will broadcast a tempt to delete Mark Zuckerberg's Facebook page. He withdraw from the pledge on 28th nothing that facebook acknowledged to be able to reproduce his bug report.
I am not sure the time on facebook post is local time or the facebook server time. September 26th in Asia time zone can be September 25th in Pacific time zone so it is possible facebook discovered the security issue based on Chang Chi-yuan's report.
Two scenarios that are possible. One is that Chang Chi-yuan was trying to exploit the bug and during the process he was able to get the access token of 50M accounts. One is that someone else hacked and the bug has nothing to do with what Chang Chi-yuan found.
Facebook is still in its early stages of the investigation so we will see.
Tags: facebook hack Chang Chi-yuan
Who is more creditable during hearing? Ford or Kav ☶ 0 ⥣ 0 2018-09-27 16:37:24
A: Christine Blasey Ford
B: Brett Kavanaugh
The live broadcasting of Ford and Kavanaugh is still going on. Ford is done and Kavanaugh just started. Many people may already have their conclusion about who is more creditable based on Ford and Kavanaugh's appearance.
To me it just a little bit awkward to see a judge to cry during the hearing. I always thought a judge should be heartless and only care about facts not emotions.
Will AAPL still be a 1T company by 2019-09-27 ☶ 2 ⥣ 0 2018-09-26 13:56:45
A: Above one trillion
B: Below one trillion
Apple is the only public company with a market cap above 1T right now. There are several other stock that has the potential to be in the 1T club, include GOOG, AMZN and MSFT, or even Berkshire Hathaway.
Although it is exciting to see a few companies in the 1T club, the one not so welcome and difficult question is, will AAPL be able to sustain its position in 1T market cap? Well, there are reasons investor should be at alarm.
First of all, Apple is not the only one 1T company in the stock history. PetroChina Company Limited (PTR) surpassed 1T on 2007 and Warren Buffet's Berkshire was a big stock holder of PTR at the time (about 3%). Buffet sold the entire stack by Oct. 18, 2007. PTR reached all time high around that time with about $260 per share. The stock price crashed soon after, went all the way down $74 a year later, and ever since in between $60-$150 range, currently around $80. Although the oil price fluctuation was supposed to be the major factor, it is in fact not. Brent oil topped out at about $144 a barrel in July 2008, and at the same time PTR has the stock price in half of its peak when the oil price was at about $90. The major factor that influenced the PTR stock price is indeed the news Buffet acquired / sold the stock. By then Buffet invested about 500M and profited about 3.5B.
Second of all, what's the major forces that is driving Apple's stock price? One is the huge stock buy back with hundreds of billions. $200B was done by June, 2018, and another $100B was announced. As of June, 2018, Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway owned approximately 246.5 million shares, or 5.1% of Apple's outstanding shares. With today's apple stock price of 222, this stack worth about $54B. It's a big stack but not as big as Apple's stock buy back plan. Even so, with Buffet's Berkshire name on the top stock holder list, many investors will be over optimistic and buy buy buy. The question is when will Buffet unload the pile, and when will Apple diminish its buy back plan? Looking at Apple's recent buy back data statistics, there is a trend of slowing buyback but it is still around $5B a quarter. As soon as consumers willing to pay high price for an IPhone, Apple will have enough cash to sustain the buy back plan. With the trade war between USA and China dragging on, it is likely that either the higher price of Apple's product discourage it's demand or Apple has to suffer lower margin.
We will see in a year, and what's your thoughts?